by Eze Eluchie
In view of
the commencement of political party campaigns and electioneering activities
towards the 2023 general elections which is scheduled for February and March
2023, as designated by the Independent National Election (INEC) in consonance
with the Electoral Act 2022 (as amended);
And with a
view to ensuring seamless campaign and electioneering processes towards a free
and fair general elections come 2023;
And as part
of our civic duties as concerned and committed Nigerians averse to occurrences
and or actions which may serve to destabilize the polity to the detriment of
all concerned;
We wish to
notify all and sundry {the electorate, political parties and their
membership/supporters, the general Nigerian public, domestic and foreign civil
society and intergovernmental bodies involved with election monitoring and
observation, the Government and its various agencies involved in preparations
towards the 2023 elections (including but not restricted to INEC, the various
security and paramilitary agencies), regional multi-State entities such as
ECOWAS and the African Union, and the international community}, regarding
strategically imposed booby-traps and obstacles, towards the path to free and
fair general elections in 2023, which are intended, if not expeditiously
addressed, to scuttle efforts at a peaceful, free and fair election in 2023.
With the likely consequence of the truncation of the transition processes,
orchestration of crisis and likely declaration of a State of Emergency and
descent in chaos.
We have
identified 5 key booby-traps, each of which has the capacity to solely truncate
the 2023 General elections, and thus when viewed as an amalgam, jointly have
the capacity to create sufficient crisis to destabilize the polity. These are:
1. * Proposed 2023 Census
2. * Proposal for Federal Inland Waterways Act
3. * INEC’s lack of transparency with its Computer systems and IT infrastructures
4. * Orchestrated violence & armed
militia
5. * Financial strangulation of component
units of the federation
A.
Proposed 2023 Census:
Considering the following factors – (i) the enormous logistics
requirement for a census, (ii) the surreptitious and clandestine nature with
which plans at the 2023 Census are being undertaken (as most persons are concerned
with the General elections); (iii) the believe amongst large segments of
Nigeria’s population that the census is to forcibly integrate foreigners of a
particular ethnic group, trafficked for ulterior motives into Nigeria, into the
Nigerian polity prior to the emergence of a new government in 2023; and (iv)
the clear unsettling of the polity conducting a Census a few weeks before
Presidential elections is bound to cause: the plans to have a Census just
before the 2023 general elections is an ill-thought agenda geared towards
creating disquiet and mayhem in the polity with the intention of frustrating
the conduct of the 2023 general elections.
The proposed 2023 Census is a crisis on its own and ought not be
conducted before the 2023 general elections.
B. Proposed Federal Inland Waterways Act (FIWA)
The current regime of Muhammadu Buhari has been at its most devious in
churning out ideas to grab-lands from across Nigeria for the singular interest
of cattle rearing, a vocation portrayed and effectively synonymous with a
single ethnic group in Nigeria. In the course of over 7 years of the existence
of the Buhari regime, several ideas to grab lands have been rolled out, and
vehemently resisted by other peoples of Nigeria. Some of these ideas include:
(i) RUGA; (ii) Grazing Routes; and plans for the National Inland Waterways Bill
(under which the Federal Government will take over ownership of all lands
adjourning rivers in Nigeria). Despite enthusiastic efforts of the regime to
foist their land grab ideas, the rejection was vehement. For the Federal Government
to resurrect the FIWA again, so close to the elections? Clearly someone up
there does not mean well for the Nigerian polity and seems intent on raising
issues that will scuttle the cause of peace and stability in Nigeria.
The idea of a FIWB will elicit resistance, as usual from diverse
components of Nigeria and has the potential of snowballing into a crisis that
will obviate efforts at conducting elections in 2023.
C.
INEC’s lack of transparency with its
IT infrastructures
The discovery of sacks containing thousands of INEC’s ‘Permanent Voters
Cards’ (PVC) dumped in gutters, bushes and waste bins in diverse locations in
southern Nigeria, and the revelation of the inclusion into the INEC Voters List
of thousands of fictitious names and uploading of pictures that were not
captured directly onto INEC’s Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) has
raised the likelihood that the 2023 elections is already massively compromised.
The perception of an already grossly compromised eletion outcomes is further
entrenched when one observes the unholy silence and refusal of INEC leadership to
address these weighty concerns and allegations. The questions agitating the
population include: (i) If millions who tried to register are being delisted or
cannot collect their PVC’s, how come thousands of PVC’s are showing up dumped
as refuse? (ii) If mere passport photographs, pictures scanned from memorial
posters and images/names whose origins are clearly distant from Nigeria’s shores
are showing up on INEC’s Voters List, what is the guarantee that such names,
which surreptitiously found their way unto the Voters List, will not
surreptitiously be accredited and also vote on election day in 2023?
The unwillingness of INEC to subject its Computer systems, Information
Technology infrastructure to pre- and during and post-election audit,
monitoring and evaluations by independent observers and agents of the political
parties is a huge red flag for the conduct of free and fair elections in 2023.
D.
Orchestrated violence and Armed
militia
As the 2023 elections approach, there has been marked increase in the
proliferation of lethal arms nationwide, with these arms in several instances
being openly displayed in possession of entities inclined towards the ruling
APC. Some of these public display of weapons include the braggadocios displays
by such non-State actors as Asari Dokubo in Rivers State and Bello Turji in
Zamfara States and the recent display of AK-47 wielding vigilantes of Katsina
State. The silence by Federal authorities and federally-controlled security
agencies to these provocative gun-toting activities of elements aligned with,
and vociferous rants by same Federal authorities against efforts at protecting
lives and citizens by State Governments in Benue and Ondo (to name a few), to
the extent of Federal Government proceeding against such innocuous efforts as
the Ekiti State Governments intent to deploy civilian drones to monitor
activities of criminals, clearly shows an intent on the part of the current
regime at the center to strengthen armed non-state actors whilst scuttling
efforts of component states of Nigeria to defend their residents.
The attendant apparently well-orchestrated increase in criminality,
banditry and violence across the country foretells of a scenario of voter
intimidation and suppression which will not augur well for the conduct of free
and fair polls in 2023.
E.
Financial strangulation of component
units of the Federation
Commencing from the unlawful appropriation of the entire crude oil
resources of Nigeria, which had erstwhile been owned by the Federal Government
and the Federating Units of Nigeria, under the Petroleum Industry Act, into being
a mere corporate asset/entity owned by the Federal Government; to the repeated
announcements that the NNPC has not paid a dime, from the sale of crude oil
into the Federation Account; and recent revelations of large-scale horrendous
looting of sale of crude oil proceeds, and theft of crude oil on a scale only
possible with Federal Government express involvement and connivance; it is clear
that deliberate acts are being made to financially strangulate the component
strata’s of the Nigerian federation to the benefit of the ruling party at the
center. Such financial strangulation can be manipulated to lead to popular
resentment and revolts across the country at whatsoever times the central
government feels such will be to its benefit.
This bubble of financial strangulation of the component federating units
of Nigeria has been on for a while, making it possible for the central
government, at will, to cripple any part of the country it so desires, with the
attendant upheavals that will ensue.
Each of the
above enumerated factors is capable, of its own accord, of scuttling efforts at
a successful transition via the 2023 general elections. A combination of any
two or more of the factors above can lead to sufficient public disquiet and
instability to occasion the declaration of a State of Emergency across the
country.
With recent
revelations of mindboggling acts of large-scale corruption implicating the
highest echelons of government, involving humongous sums in diverse sectors of
Nigeria’s economy, particularly the petroleum sector, there is increasing worry
that the incumbent President and his cohorts, will go to whatsoever extremes,
to ensure that he is succeeded by a fellow who will be willing to cover his
tracks.
Ironically,
despite growing and palpable evidence of surreptitious efforts at creating the
enabling environment to truncate efforts at free and fair polls in 2023, the
President, Muhammadu Buhari and the INEC Chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, seem to have
adopted the practice of assuring any who cares to listen that the Government is
intent on conducting free and fair elections and ensuring a smooth transition
to the next government come May 29, 2023. Past experiences, particularly the
events of the past few years, has made it mandatory that all and sundry
concerned about the wellbeing of the Nigerian Federation, must be quite
vigilant and watchful of all steps towards ensuring free and fair elections and
a smooth transition. In the face of the realities confronting Nigeria, we
simply cannot rely on the oral pronouncements of government when the
occurrences and realities on ground point at a deliberate well scripted and
coordinated congregation of resources and efforts towards truncating the
democratic process, subverting the will of the people and scuttling the
transition processes.
All are
enjoined to be on the watch out for the above enumerated booby-traps and ensure
that the current experimentation at democratic governance is not thwarted by
the manipulations of anti-people and anti-democratic forces.
Picture: President Muhammadu Buhari and the man appointed by Buhari as INEC Chairman to superintend over Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, Mahmood Yakubu,
