Syria chemical weapon attack - Whodunit?

by Eze Eluchie

Whilst congratulating the leadership of the United States and Russia for their sensible and ambitious efforts at a resolution of the Syrian chemical weapon use crisis, one cannot but reflect that when peace seemeth most likely, the prospect of violent escalation looms most. The leadership of the two countries have shown exceptional foresight and pragmatism, in the present process, more particularly so with the US leader who risked domestic popularity and respect but eventually ended up charting a path that has allowed the world a fresh vista at peace in the face of a most atrocious escalation of the Syrian crisis, at minimal cost and wastage of lives.

I have always opined that though despotic in his reign, Syrian President al-Assad may not have, in the face of increasing gains against rebel forces in the weeks preceding the chemical weapon use, ordered his forces to use chemical weapons. The agreement currently brokered by the US and Russia fails to address the likely other sources from whence the chemical weapons attack could have emanated nor does it make any efforts to address a cessation to the Syrian civil war which has killed over 100,000 people and rendered several million Syrians either internally displaced or  refugees in neighbouring countries.

The crime committed by the use of chemical weapons has unfortunately, in the heat of the passion generated by the images of hundreds writhing in pains as they died slow and painful chemical weapon induced deaths, not been adequately investigated. One basic rule in investigating crimes and ascertaining culprits thereof, is to ascertain who would have the greatest interest in the proceeds of the crime, had opportunity and resources to execute same. You then begin to look up each option and eliminate based on evidence available.

In addition to fringe and terrorist elements amongst Syrian rebel forces, other international players hell-bent on seeing the demise of the al-Assad dynasty in Syria also constitute likely suspects who were not investigated in the rush to vilify a valian. It may be in the best interest of the world to extend the search for who spearheaded the use of chemical weapons to amongst others, foreign governments with links to some rebel groups who would have given anything to see the demise of al-Asssad.  Some of these countries include: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its appendages in the Middle East, and the Republic of Egypt under the current military dictators.

I am particularly intrigued by the prospect of further investigating the Egyptian angle to the crisis. In my opinion, the present authorities in Egypt are looking increasingly suspect. The shift of international attention to Syria since the 21^st August chemical weapon attack has allowed General Sisi and his gang in Egypt to get away with all manners of atrocities in their merciless crackdown on opposition to their rule. Did the Egyptian rulers benefit from and have opportunity to execute or order the execution of the Syrian chemical weapon attack? Could they have done it or sponsored or supported it? Was it the Saudi’s? Was it any of the al-Qeada linked terrorists embedded with the rebels? Was al-Assad devilish and dumb enough to have done it? Whodunit?

The answer seems as distant now as on the day the attacks were launched. The earlier concrete responses are arrived at and appropriate international sanctions bequeathed on the perpetrators, the earlier the current peace brokered will have a chance of real success.

With the tentative agreement worked out between the US and Russia  it will not be totally out of character for the instigators of the original attack to carry out a more extensive and deadly chemical weapon attack - this would automatically rubbish the present feeling of amity and peace over the Syrian crisis and bring us all back to the precarious situation experienced in the days after August 21^st .

Let's brace for the worst and hope for the best.

Picture: Meeting between Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and Egypt’s interim President Adli Mansour, in Cairo, soon after the attacks on September 1, 2013. © REUTERS

Redreaming the Dream.

by Eze Eluchie

When Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in an op-ed in the New York Times, wrote that the United States of America and its peoples were not exceptional, he stated an untruth.

The United States of America and its peoples are quite exceptional!

From its origins founded on the desire for freedom and egalitarian precepts  through its formative years when it had to grapple and even war with itself on fundamentals of the equality of its peoples to its role in the two World Wars where its interventions served to preserve the sanctity of our humanity and the various contributions of its brains towards human development in fields of science, arts, sports and whatsoever, the US has, is and will probably continue to be exceptional.

In times of disasters and crisis in other climes, again the US has always proved exceptional in its empathy, contribution of relief materials and personnel where required and funds towards ameliorating the plight of others in territories far removed from theirs.

Itself, founded by immigrants and now comprised of peoples from virtually every ethnicity and nationality across planet earth, the US has at several times opened its doors to the persecuted and those whose home countries were engulfed in crisis: in such relocation's  often times offering start-up opportunities to peoples of diverse nationalities, creeds and color, magnanimous gestures which cost its tax payers dearly, monies that could in other countries have been used for the citizens. A land of opportunities where immigrants can aspire to all but the highest office in the land and in which a man can dream his way to becoming a national icon. 

When other countries choose to use their strength to rule and colonize others by various dubious tactics ranging from ‘divide-and-rule’ to 'assimilation', faced with similar opportunities, the US aided countries they had totally vanquished in times of war to get back on their feet and even become rivals (ask Germans and Japanese folks about this). 

In its exceptional interventions in other countries, did the US have motives that will eventually benefit it and its peoples? Sure, and there definitely is nothing wrong with that. The fact  remains that such deeds served to alleviate human sufferings when no other country bothered to render assistance.

Obviously, the US is no paradise, if it were; it would have been populated by Angels – but no, we have mortals in charge who come with their own nuances and  it has its own problems and vices, amongst which includes its treatment of its African American population and other racial minorities, the refusal of its President and political establishment to hearken to the call for a Marshall Plan for Africa in line with what was extended to Germany/Europe and Japan at the end of World War II (http://ezeluchie.blogspot.com/2013/04/marshall-plan-for-africa.html) and the moral crisis it is facing as a result of over liberalization. Part of its exceptional nature is that these vices are well recognized, openly debated and efforts continually being made to address and tackle them - very much unlike what happens in other climes. Certainly the US is exceptional.

Without doubt, the missteps (yes indeed, the US government has mishandled its reaction to some conflicts in the Middle East) the US has thus far made with regards to the crisis in Syria which prompted Mr. Putin’s misstatements also take bearing from the exceptional nature of the US – to reach out and ensure security in a region where some of the entities seem irrevocably geared towards extreme fanaticism and a perpetual desire to exterminate one of their neighbors, the Jews, a people who are equally entitled to a homeland and a right of existence.

In the absence of a US in the present world order, which country appears close to replicating its role? Britain or France? God forbid! We would all be colonized all over again. China? Russia? The suggested alternatives are nightmarish. Do I wish I could have mentioned an African alternative? Nigeria? South Africa? Certainly! But this is a serious piece, not fiction.

So President Vladimir Putin, truth be told, the United States of America and its peoples are exceptional!

Picture: The United States:

The Russian breather - but for how long?

by Eze Eluchie

When Russia's Foreign Minister (Sergey Lavrov) invited his Syrian counterpart (Walid al-Moallem) to a meet in Moscow, scheduled for a date when United States federal legislators were scheduled to reconvene to formally begin consideration for President Barack Obama’s request for congressional backing to found military attack against Syria, it was obvious that some form of announcement geared at resolving the buildup against Syria would trail from the Moscow summit of Russia and its major ally in the Middle East. Two options seemed viable from the Summit: One, an announcement increasing Russian military assistance to Syria to fortify its protégé against what seemed an inevitable attack from US forces, a move that would certainly have upped the ante as it would have meant that strikes against Syria would also signify US strikes against Russia. The second projected outcome of the Moscow summit had been an announcement that Russia would support a broad based open ended dialogue process which would, whilst offering a chance of peace in Syria, ensure face-saving safe passage for the al-Assad dynasty, which had been allied to the Russians for decades.

The absolutely brilliant and totally unanticipated offer of international control and demobilization of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal announced after the Moscow summit, and which was instantly welcomed and agreed to by the Syrians completely took the wind out of the sail of the build-up to a needless and wasteful military operation being orchestrated against Syria.  With details of how the disarmament process would be pursued still hazy, and most probably extremely difficult to effect, in view of the fact that Syria was still engaged in a protracted civil war, world leaders nevertheless saw no qualms in falling over themselves in a bid to grasp at what seemed the sole dignified lifeline to all parties at avoiding a crisis that was brought about in part by an apparent senseless addiction to self destruction by the Syrians and in another part by the 'red line' political gaffe of US President Obama (see http://ezeluchie.blogspot.com/2013/05/when-tail-wags-dog.html). 

From UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, to Chinese, British, French and US governments, the sigh of relief that there could be a political solution to the Syrian impasse which spared the world the gory spectacle of watching cruise missiles bombarding defenseless civilians in Damascus and other Syrian cities, and the ensuing damages and fatalities that would result from likely retaliatory strikes Syria and its allies may unleash at their foes, reverberated across the continents.

The offer from the Russians was indeed stunning. And like all 'successes', soon enough, it had many entities claiming ownership and credit for it.

At last someone had hearkened to the call to put on a reasoning cap.

But for how long will the sense of relief last? Unfortunately not for quite long. 

The very forces which unleashed the initial chemical weapon attack in the suburbs of Damascus on the 21st day of August, be they fringe elements within al-Assad's army or rouge rebel commanders, will certainly be miffed that their objective of expanding the conflict by drawing in more combatants has been rubbished by the brilliant offer proffered by the Russians. Those who deployed the chemical weapon attack have neither claimed credit for the deed nor have they informed anyone that their stock of such lethal weapons would be handed over for containment and eventual destruction - there will most likely be further chemical weapon attacks in Syria.

In the euphoria of a time for rethink and deeper reflection brought about by the Russian offer, several questions seem to have been temporarily swept under the carpet. These include:

1. With denials from all sides of the Syrian conflict as to origin of the use of chemical weapons, what happens in the event of another chemical weapon attack before or during efforts to contain and demobilize chemical weapons officially under the control of al-Assads forces?

2. With Russia's claims that Syrian rebels had used chemical weapons in the ongoing conflict, who will contain and demobilize the chemical weapons at the disposal of the several real and fringe Rebel elements? If only one sides chemical arsenal is demobilized, the problem is merely half addressed, which in the context of this unfortunate episode, means the problem has not been addressed.

3. Will a new 'red line' have been crossed in the event of a new chemical weapon attack?

4. Will the already assembled armada in the Mediterranean and the Red Sea be put to instantaneous use in the event of a renewed chemical weapon attack without prior efforts at identifying with certainty, the culprit?

5. With the expertise for chemical weapon development available at the click of the mouse on the internet, and so many desperadoes out there, can it be ascertained with any element of accuracy who deployed what, when and where?

It is suggested that a comprehensive global ban and destruction of all stockpiles of chemical weapons, held by all countries, irrespective of stature or perceived might,  and entrenchment of regulatory mechanisms under the auspices of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) to prevent the production and stockpiling of such weapons will erase the likelihood of the world being pushed to the brink over usage of such lethal weapons.

Vladimir Putin's masterstroke has given the world a breather, but for how long?  

Picture: Russian President, Vladinir Putin, basking in and seemingly enjoying his new found role as global peace maker.