Interference In 2016 US Presidential Elections – Did Russia Overreach Itself?

by Eze Eluchie, 

In the period leading to the 2016 US Presidential elections, the preference of the Russian federation as to who should occupy the Oval Office was no secret. Even the two major candidates in the US presidential elections were quite aware of this and acted accordingly with the Democratic Party’s candidate, Hilary Clinton, promising to get ‘tougher’ in her dealings with Russia and apply more sanctions against Russia; whilst her Republican opponent, and now President, Donald Trump, at times to the chagrin of other Republican Party members, expressed open respect for and desire for increased friendship with the Russian leader and increased collaboration and cooperation with between the US and Russia to address such issues as Islamist extremism and cyber warfare.

Considering the stature and influence wielded by whosoever occupies the Oval Office, interest in who amongst the two main contenders would clinch the plum job was universal. With many European leaders who were sceptical of what an unknown and erratic Donald Trump with his public support for nationalistic sentiments across Europe, a dismantling of the European Union and open declarations of the worthlessness of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), would portend, openly rooting for a Clinton victory; Euroskeptics and nationalist elements across Europe were clearly, alongside several analysts and stakeholders across sub-Sahara Africa worried about the emergence of a President in the United States who, like then incumbent President Obama, was shy of confronting extremist Islamists, pro-refugees and had too close a relationship with Sunni Arab states with their extremist brand of Islam.

Unlike previous US presidential elections when much of the world looked on as spectators awaiting whatsoever the decision of the American electorate would be, several external forces simply felt there was just too much at stake to leave the onerous task of selecting the 45^th POTUS to only the  electorate in the United States. Most Americans will cringe in consternation at the immediate past sentence, but that’s the trite reality that engulfed the world as the 2016 US presidential elections approached.

European leaders in Paris, Berlin, London and virtually all major EU governments, did all they could to shore up their preferred US Presidential candidate’s chances at the polls: public statements of support from diverse quarters; subtle dire warnings targeted to the US electorate as likely outcomes in the event that Donald Trump emerged victorious; and at times outright expression of support for Hilary Clinton. On his part, the Russian leader, Vladmir Putin, with his trademark sly smirk adorning his face, maintained and severally restated Russia’s indifference to whosoever emerged as President in the US presidential elections.      

The difference in the stance and reactions  of European Governments and the Russian leadership was that whilst the European governments were headed by career politicians who had inhibitions of the likely consequences to themselves and their country’s of interfering in the US presidential elections, the Russian leader was not a career politician, but rather a former Spy master, former senior operative of the KGB and thus a master of the science and art of sleuth, who had absolutely nothing to lose (considering that virtually every sanction possible had already been imposed on Russia by Western powers on account of the Crimea crisis) in the event that Russian interference in US elections was discovered and everything to gain, in having a ‘grateful’ ally in the White House.

The reality now is that by very suave, strategic and deft deployment of cyber-warfare, espionage, information (and disinformation) dissemination, and good old personal contacts and outreach, the Russians impacted and influenced the 2016 US presidential elections, successfully ensuring that Russia’s preferred candidate, Donald Trump, emerged as the 45^th President of the United States. As the old saying goes, the rest is history.

Buoyed on by it’s success in the US elections, Russia is becoming more frontal and brazen with her support for candidates in elections in major European democracies. The recent visit to the Kremlin and a meeting with the Russian leader by the leading candidate in the forthcoming April 2017 French Presidential elections, Maria le Pen, was not only unprecedented but clearly care-free as to whatsoever interpretations such endorsement of a foreign presidential aspirant may generate in the mind of French voters.  

As the US authorities wake up to the realization that they have been had, that there is likely to be a repeat of a ‘Mikhail Gorbachev’ episode in the US, that the democratic structures and system instituted by their founding fathers and upon which they have been perfecting for over two hundred years now, has been compromised, infiltrated and probably ridiculed, there will be consequences. Consequences that will make the Russians, who are currently basking in the privacy of the inner sanctuaries of the Kremlin on the euphoria of having installed ‘their man’ in the White House wonder if they had gone too far, if they should simply have stopped at discrediting a perceived foe and still left the final choice to the American electorate rather than go all the way to ensuring who occupies the Oval Office.

Picture: Russian President, Vladmir Putin.