Saturday, September 2, 2023

Coup Season II in Africa: Causes and where the next one will occur

 by Eze Eluchie

 

Despite being awash with vast deposits of mineral and natural resources, countries across Africa, particularly in the West and Central regions of the continent, have maintained near-permanent positions on the lowest rankings in global index for all negatives: ranging from the poorest countries, the highest unemployment levels, lowest life expectancies, highest infant mortality rates, highest illiteracy levels, widest income gaps, amongst other global parameters for gauging standard of living, strength of national economies and quality of lives of populations within any jurisdiction.

Whilst the vast majority of the populations in the various countries in these region eck out a living at subhuman levels, the individuals opportune to rule over the mineral rich countries in these regions are globally notorious for ostentatious lifestyles, junketing in state-of-the-art private jets and yacht, shopping at the most exquisite and exclusive of designer outlets, purchasing multi-million dollar mansions and making payment for all these purchases and lifestyles in raw cash, and generally portraying themselves as living life to the fullest

A vicious looting-cum-ruling class:

Those at the helm of affairs and their inner circle (which often times cuts across all sectors of society including identified cronies in the political, religious, and military settings), in the various countries in the region often times have no other means of livelihood except for access to the public till. In direct and real terms, these characters were merely robbing their countries dry and living large off the loot, whilst viciously emasculating and pauperizing the populations over whom they rule.

The socioeconomic situations in most countries in sub-Sahara Africa is simply not sustainable, akin to being perched on a keg of gunpowder – all it required was the slightest spark to ignite an explosion. As the populations became more aware of their sorrowful predicament in the hands of their rulers, the agitation for betterment in life conditions was met with more brutal suppression of rights and more frenzied approach to stealing of public resources, by a rulership which had become less attached to their populations, and more fixated on their ‘friendship’ with foreign powers, who they felt would always come to their aide, whenever.

Not bothered about the responsibilities of a State to its citizens, the plight of their citizens or to even treat their nationals like human beings, regimes across the region focused more on crippling national economies, undermining their populations and allowing their States to be plundered by foreign interests under the most dubious of international agreements. To conform with what they perceived were ‘international norms’, these kleptos who ruled over much of Africa deployed mechanisms to schedule a date when their local populations will ostensibly, ‘revalidate their mandate’, under supposedly ‘democratic elections’. The practice of democracy was reduced to the sham of having a date set aside for ‘elections. Democracy thus became a ruse vile dictatorial regimes adapted to mask their stench and present their foreign collaborators with a tool to obscure sordid realities from populations in the West. The fragrance of domestic and foreign election observers and monitors served to spice up the façade, providing on the one hand domestic collaborators, who for access to donor-grants, will validate electoral heists, and on the other, foreign adjudicators who will using the veiled threat of ability to rule an election ‘far below acceptable international democratic standards’, ensure that even where there was a ‘slip’, only outcomes favorable to Western powers were deemed acceptable.

Unfortunately, the judiciary, which in times past used to exude some semblance of independence, objectivity and competence, and was generally thought of as ‘the last hope of the common man’, acquiesced their noble role and joined in-bed, with the looting class, and repeatedly failed to uphold basic tenets of justice, constitutionalism and the rule of law in adjudicating over election disputes and efforts to tweak constitutional provisions to prolong the sufferings of the people – thus leaving the majority disillusioned, anxious and worried.

Continuing hemorrhage by former colonial overlords:

Visible foreign collaborators with the ruling echelon of these African countries, are the same colonial overlords from whom the African countries had gained ‘flag’ independence in the 60’s – mainly France and Britain. These two European countries continue to maintain, with support of an elite looting class to whom they had ‘relinquished’ political power, lecherous relationships which serve to impoverish the vast majority of the populations in the African countries, allowing vain perks to the looting class whilst the colonial overlords, through deft bilateral agreements retain stifling control over the assets of the African countries. The French are more brazen in their approach as they virtually control the economy, serve as Central Bank and maintain military bases in all their former colonies. The British on the other hand are suave about their overbearing control, as they impose stooges and operate more from behind the scene. They both, however, achieve the same insidious goal of neocolonialism which has dastardlier consequences for the citizens of the African countries than what transpired during the colonial era.

The real coups in Africa occurs when the looting class who man the various African countries discard Constitutional provisions guaranteeing people’s rights and those related to Presidential tenure limits, renege on State responsibilities towards the citizenry under the Social Contract theory and institutionalize bad governance, corruption and vendetta as cardinal principles of the State. The silence of regional, continental and international multi-State organizations to these aberrations which diminish the citizens of African countries, convinces Africans that alternate templates for liberation and development must be adapted.

 

Fed up with the pretense at democracy without any positive add-ons to the lives of the people, and denied of any meaningful path towards effecting necessary changes to the leadership of their countries via the ballot box, the emasculated populations are primed, ready and prepared to support any and all change in government!

Having effectively gauged the socioeconomic environment and the likelihood of mass support for a putsch, with public show of force in the form of motorized convoy of military hardware and troops taking over major parts of the national capital, staccato of bullets rendering the peace of night, and a terse broadcasts in local media announcing the sacking of the corrupt regimes, closure of all border entries and the airspace (pretending they have the capacity to monitor their national airspace), a group of soldiers readily step in: announcing oft rehashed condemnation of corruption and promising to right wrongs, better the lot of the citizens, and lead their country to Eldorado. The severely abused and maligned citizens of the African countries will readily troop out onto the streets to welcome their new found ‘messiahs’.

Coup Season II

In the course of the past 3 years, starting from 2020, sub-Sahara Africa seems to have cruised into a season of coups, with soldiers (renegade or patriotic, depending from which perspective one views the situation), with a rapidity that was last witnessed in the continent over 30 years ago, staging a total of 8 coups and counter coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Niger and now Gabon. The coups, with the sole exception of the coup in Sudan, occurred in countries which had continued to reel under the stranglehold and economic exploitation of France.

Blindsided by the rapidity of the collapse of its stooges in West Africa, France was left flatfooted with the swiftness with which it lost control of Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, and the ridicule it was exposed to when its former victim-States ordered France to pull out the French military bases off their territories. Faced with the obvious economic collapse its loss of the freebies it raked in from outlandish exploitation of its colonial outposts, the French leadership delved into childish tantrums, threatening hell and brimstone when yet another coup occurred in its former territory, the Republic of Niger, from which France dubiously appropriated Uranium and Gold deposits. France realized the existential threat it would suffer if it lost the vice-like grip it had over a source from which she bolstered the Gold Reserve which found the French economy and the cheap uranium with which it lit up its homes and industries in France.

In desperation to ensure that Niger does not remain out of its grip, France reached out to known stooges, it had long propped up in Senegal and Cote D’Ivore, and a new lackey on the bloc whose very selection as President of Nigeria had come after a most dubious electoral heist that had further blighted Democracy as a reliable system of government in the estimation of Africans. The Nigerian ruler, in a stark display of his inexperience and novice status in international relations, acting on the behest of the former colonial overlords and using the auspices of the regional multinational body, ECOWAS, issued a one-week ultimatum to the coup leaders in Niger, to reinstate the deposed French stooge, or face military invasion by some ECOWAS member States.

Tinubu’s naivety & sour antecedents ups the stakes:

This unprecedented condescending acts of some sister-West Africa countries against Niger, backfired as it directly elicited patriotic fervor from Nigeriens, who thereafter trooped in their millions in support of their new Government. The position of the colonial overlords and their regional stooges masquerading under the ECOWAS tag was worsened when the Governments of Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso vowed support for the Government in Niger and concretized their support by moving in troops and armaments in support of the new regime in Niger

The fact that the Nigerian ruler who was spearheading efforts at ‘restoring democracy’ in Niger was himself a product of electoral heist tantamount to a coup, and had not been able to stem the rising waves of banditry and extremist Islamist terror attacks in Nigeria, coupled with the desperation in former colonial overlords exhibited in their avowal to commit human and material resources towards the invasion of Niger, exposed a deeper non-altruistic and selfish coloration to efforts to deny a people who had, via a coup, eased themselves of the yoke of bad rulers.

Whilst the Niger coup was approaching boiling point with the declaration by France that it would neither recognize the authority of the new rulers in Niger and would not withdraw its Ambassador as requested by the new regime, thus setting the stage for a possible invasion of Niger by France, yet another group of military officers struck in Gabon, and sacked another dictator who was seeking to use the ruse of a ‘democratic elections’ to perpetuate his families’ chokehold on Gabon. A hold that had rendered the population of what ought to have been one of the richest countries in Africa, to destitution and backwardness.

If the Niger coup, set alarm bells ringing, the Gabon coup soon thereafter, pushed the bells to overdrive across the globe. Sit-tight dictators across Africa immediately embarked on mass sacks/retirement of senior Generals in their military’s and replacing same with trusted cronies, laboring under the illusion that with such cosmetic changes in the military, they will continue their vice hold over their population. Member States of the European Union likewise got quite started about the sudden loss of stooges who had served to assure Europe of extremely cheap sources of gas, crude oil and myriad other mineral resources. The EU leadership, sequel to the Gabon coup, immediately summoned a meeting of their Foreign and Defense Ministers to harmonize actions to confront the desire by African countries to be free.

The usual condemnation for coups in Africa, such as announcement of the suspension of the ‘erring State’, and measured sanctions were announced by the Africa Union, and other Heads-of-States Clubs, also known as sub-regional multinational organizations in Africa, were reeled out after each of the 8 coup thus far in the course of the past 3 years – all to no effect whatsoever.

Where the next coup will take place:

The reality which all must acquiesce to is that there is a new wave of decolonialization sweeping across Africa. The old order had terribly short-changed Africa, rendering the continent richest in mineral and natural resources, the poorest and most raped continent. Those who have benefited from the scam which has held Africa so backward over the past few decades, need only to realize that human beings with a quest for advancement and betterment of themselves, their environment and safeguarding their future, also inhabit the Africa continent.

As the Coup Season continues, it is likely to, like a tornado, gather more momentum and intensity as it barrels across the continent. Thus far, the soldiers who had executed putsches over the past 2 years have remarkably been non-violent. In some instances, such as the Republics of Niger and Gabon episodes, allowing the rulers they had deposed access to meetings with foreigners, meetings that had sustained unwarranted foreign interference and which could have truncated the putsches. Bets are ow being wagered as to where the next ouster of despotic regimes masquerading as democracies will occur. Some countries which, by virtue of the disconnect between the regimes in power and their populations, level of large scale corruption, viciousness of the regimes in dealing with their civil populations and other criterion to assess good governance, can rightly be predicted as eminently qualified for a change of guards include: Cameroon, Uganda, Senegal and Central African Republic. Others not too far behind include such territories as Nigeria, Ghana and Cote D’Ivoire. Nigeria and Senegal have had very dubious election processes which led to imposition of unfits as rulers over very vibrant populations.

 

As the coup season unfolds, if coups were to take place in the aforelisted countries, the various international multi-State organizations (such as ECOWAS, AU, UN EU and others), which have not sufficiently urged for the adoption of good governance principles and the rule of law in the countries highlighted, will do their already depleted images before Africans a world of good, by refraining from the usual condemnations of coups and imposition of economic sanction, when and if the coups eventually occur.

 

The next few months before the Coup Season lapses would be quite interesting…..


Picture: Malians celebrate coup leaders the ouster of President Ibrahim Keita



Saturday, August 26, 2023

France must respect Niger Republics sovereignty – an invasion would be against the so-called ‘Rule-based International Order’

 by Eze Eluchie,

 

It is preposterous that France has rejected orders from the defacto and dejure Government of the Republic of Niger to withdraw its Ambassador and diplomats by Sunday 27th August 2023. This rejection is an affront to all norms and texts of international Law and the so-called rule based world order being championed by Western powers

 

Such rejection by France, leaves the leaders of Niger with no other option than to, at the end of the period to vacate, seek to arrest and deport from Niger, the said French Ambassador and other French diplomats in Niger. When it is realized that the French Ambassador will ordinarily have some French soldiers guarding him and his residence, there is all probability that confrontation may ensue.

 

The Emmanuel Macron regime in France has given the feeble excuse that it does not recognize the Government in control of Niger, claiming to still recognize the deposed Bazoum junta. President Macron must realize that, far and above France, the United Nations has already acknowledged the reality of the Government in Niger and is already obeying the instructions of the leaders of Niger – thus relegating France’s present stance as mere agent provocateur for conflict.

 

Under the false and deceptive pretext of ‘restoring democratically elected government of Bazoum’, a phrase used to mask a desperate desire to retain a stranglehold over the mineral resources of Niger, whilst ensuring that the people of Niger remain economically retarded and emasculated, the regime of Emmanuel Macron in France appears to be ready to invade Niger for economic and geopolitical reasons

 

If France under this pretext, send in her soldiers to invade Niger, all moral pretentiousness and rationale sustaining NATO support for Ukraine against Russia invasion will evaporate – reducing French and NATO involvement in Ukraine to a mere opportunistic frolic to undermine an adversary (Russia) without any regard for the cost of such endeavor on the peoples and territory of Ukraine.

 

It is hoped that France will refrain from levying an unjust and unproved war against the Government and people of Niger. Macron’s Government ought to obey the desire of the Niger Government and withdraw its Ambassador and diplomats from Niger.

 

 

Picture: President of Niger, Abdourahamane Tchiani and President of France, Emmanuel Macron





 

Friday, August 4, 2023

Niger Republic Coup: The West must realize that the world and Africans are watching:- but do they care?

by Eze Eluchie

 

 

 

“Political power is not to be served in a restaurant, it's not served in a la carte, it's what we are doing, its being determined to do it at all costs: Fight for it, grab it, snatch it and run with it”

~Bola Tinubu (Nigeria’s placeholder President) in London, 2013.

 

 

 

When soldiers of the Republic of Niger’s Presidential Guards in the morning of 26th July 2023, the detained President Mohamed Bazoum in a bloodless coup d’etat, the spontaneity of jubilations across Niger was quite infectious. Outsiders distant from the pains and sufferings of the people of Niger would be astounded, but any familiar with the goings on In this mineral rich country whose population have been derided for decades as ‘one of the poorest countries on earth’, will understand the euphoria.

 

Here was a country which was a major producer of uranium and had very rich Gold reserves, yet the population barely felt the wealth of their country, whilst conglomerates from France and other European entities profited immensely from Niger. Niger was on an edge and the slightest tilt was bound to effect the change witnessed in the coup.

 

Coming barely two weeks after the pronouncement by newly installed Chairman of the regional body, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Nigeria’s Placeholder President, Bola Tinubu, that ECOWAS would not tolerate any ‘unconstitutional’ changes in political leadership across the sub-region, the July Coup in Niger set up an early test-case for the potency of ECOWAS.

 

In a hurriedly convened meeting of some Heads of Governments of ECOWAS member States in Abuja, chaired by Mr. Tinubu (who ECOWAS had in view of Nigeria’s enormous financial contributions towards the sustenance of the West African regional multi-State organization, made Chairman during his very first attendance at any ECOWAS meet), ECOWAS rather undiplomatically and contrary to the regional bodies practices to arrive at decisions via consensus and unanimous agreements, brashly ordered those who had deposed the government in Republic of Niger to vacate office within a week, or face military intervention from ECOWAS.  Noticeably absent at the said ECOWAS Heads of State meeting, were the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Equitorial Guinea. That the Authority of Heads of State of ECOWAS would arrive at such controversial decision without ensuring all the member States of the organization were on board was bound to later haunt the sub-regional body.

 

Being himself, a character who snatched and ran with political power against the wishes of the population freely expressed in the 25th February 2023 Presidential elections in Nigeria, the country’s current, Mr. Tinubu, was clearly in no position whatsoever to challenge the soldiers who grabbed power in similar vein. It is however important to note that unlike Tinubu, General Abdourahamane Tchiani and his compatriots apparently have the support of the overwhelming majority of Nigeriens and peoples of the West Africa sub-region

 

It must be pointed out at this stage that in the absence of unanimity amongst ECOWAS countries, any invasion of Niger (as being planned by some countries with support and prodding by some Western countries) would be an illegitimate war. Already, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea have already indicated that any attack on Niger Republic would be taken by those three geographically and linguistically contiguous countries, as an attack against their peoples.

 

Those who fail to condemn persons who attain political power by scuttling the Constitutions of their respective countries via acts of electoral heist and stealing votes, should spare us any sanctimonious indignations when non-politicians (in the strict sense of that phrase) opt to intervene in the political space. Such condemnations of non-politicians’ interventions in politics gets more condescending if the intervention is with the approval and support of the domestic population.

 

The old saying of universal validity that ‘those who make peaceful change impossible, make violent change inevitable’ comes to light once more. When the existing political process consistently churns out scions and cronies of those who have held the population backwards, it is only a matter of time, before the bubble bursts. The population affected have to remain vigilant, lest the ideals of today become the nightmare of tomorrow.

 

The argument that any ‘democratic arrangement’ is better than military regimes is, as has been experienced by the peoples of West Africa, a fallacy from the pit of hell.

 

Are coups okay only when it is supported and planned by some external powers; and bad when it has popular support? Is the condemnation and sanctioning being applied by some Western countries merely for the purposes of exploring and ensuring protection of external interests, and will such be relaxed once age old parochial interests, which have left the peoples of the affected country pauperized are assured?

 

The West (the United States, United Kingdom, the European Union et al), should not taint their existing moral authority as democracies by prodding the mastermind and prime beneficiary of Nigeria’s 2023 electoral heist to plunge the West Africa region into needless and wasteful fratricidal conflict.

 

The implications of the continuing push by some Western countries, notably France, Britain and the United States for ECOWAS military intervention in Niger is that arguments being made by NATO against Russia for its ‘special military operations’ in Ukraine would be exposed as hypocritical and nonsensical if any countries supporting Ukraine were to participate in an illegitimate invasion on and against the peoples of Niger Republic.

 

Additionally, demands that former Nigerien President, Bazoum, be ‘released unconditionally’ being touted by the US, British and French governments is clear unsolicited interference in the internal affairs of Niger. A call for expedient production of the deposed President before requisite judicial authorities in Niger for the prosecution of any charges the new Government in Niamey may have against the deposed ruler, would have been more realistic and responsible.

 

 

Tinubu’s infamous declaration to fight, grab, snatch and run with political power 

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/d4kgJAsHCok

 

 

Those who rig elections are Siamese twins with coup plotters – the only difference being that riggers are civilians and coupists are oftentimes soldiers

 

 

Picture: Niger leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani and Nigeria ruler, Bola Tinubu